Are relations with China and Pakistan changing?

Modi-Xi meeting important, but it will take time to establish trust

Author: Ranjit Kumar

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping met during the BRICS summit in Kazan city of Russia. To make this bilateral meeting possible, the first important step has been taken to end the military standoff that has been going on between the two countries since April 2020. The two leaders met after five years. It can be said that this is the beginning of melting the ice on relationships.

First step: It is very important for India that China, while accepting the validity of the Line of Actual Control, has accepted the right to withdraw its troops and patrol there by the troops of both the countries. This first step has been termed as Disengagement in diplomatic language. The second step will be taken as De-escalation and the third step will be taken as De-induction. Only after this, it would be correct to say that both the countries have been able to bring back the pre-April 2020 environment in the eastern Ladakh area.

After five years: Due to the encroachment of the Chinese army on Indian land, unprecedented tension arose in the relations. PM Modi has not met President Xi Jinping for the last five years because the two cannot meet until China withdraws its army. In view of the emphasis laid on normalizing relations in the talks held in Kazan, India’s emphasis will be on the fact that both the countries should completely eliminate their military deployment from the areas behind the LAC.

A matter of relief: Chinese soldiers had penetrated deep inside the LAC in the snowy mountainous border areas of eastern Ladakh. To force them to retreat, 21 rounds of talks took place between the military commanders of the two countries. Almost similar discussions took place at the level of diplomats, National Security Advisors and Foreign Ministers. Only then has a fresh consensus been reached. It is a matter of relief for India that an agreement has also been reached on Depsang and Demchok.

When will the army return: There was tremendous warmth in the relations between India and China before 2020. Again for the same warmth, Army Chief General Upendra Dwivedi has rightly said that both the countries will have to establish an atmosphere of complete mutual trust on the LAC. Disengagement is fine in this regard, but the biggest question in the minds of the Indian people is that when will the 50 thousand soldiers deployed by both the countries on the border be brought back? Will this process of de-escalation be possible before the onset of winter? If this does not happen then there will be pressure on the Indian Army.

Remembrance of Doklam: China had sent its army to the Doklam area claimed by Bhutan in mid-2017. After much persuasion and 73 days of military deployment, he/she called back the troops. After this, in the year 2018, PM Modi went to China and started informal summit talks with Xi Jinping there. Then he/she had invited the Chinese President to visit India. But soon after this, the way Xi Jinping sent his/her army to the border areas of eastern Ladakh was surprising.

Broke the trust: The Chinese President completely ignored the mutual trust agreements between the two countries in 1993, 1996, 2005 and 2013. he/she ordered his/her forces to encroach into Indian claimed areas. The result of this was an incident like Galwan Valley in June 2020. Even after this, India’s political and military leadership showed great restraint. Even in provocative situations, he/she exercised patience and resolved the issue through dialogue.

Construction related concerns: But, the concern has not diminished. During the last four and a half years, the Chinese Army has made permanent constructions in extremely inaccessible mountainous areas. There is a fear that China will not be ready to demolish these military infrastructure and leave the area completely. In such a situation, there will be a situation of military tension and mutual distrust in the border areas of Eastern Ladakh.

Reason for suspicion: After April 2020, a temporary buffer zone was created under the earlier agreement for disengagement from the Chinese intruded areas – Galwan, Pangong, Gogra-Hotspring. This zone was created in the territory of India only. There has been a fresh agreement for military patrolling in this area and it has not been clearly said what will happen to the buffer zone. Consent was not announced by China, it was only confirmed that a solution has been found to the border issue between the two countries. Due to the absence of mention of military disengagement in China’s retaliatory statement, Indian strategic observers will remain doubtful about China’s intentions, because our neighbor has a long history of breaking trust.

Indian Foreign Minister’s visit to SCO, no change in relations with Pakistan expected

Author: Harsh V Pant

After weeks of creating a sensation in the media, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit finally concluded with the brief visit of External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar to Islamabad. Whatever speculations have been made regarding India-Pakistan relations, what this 23rd SCO meeting will be remembered for is – Jaishankar’s black glasses. In the era of social media, Jaishankar’s wearing of dark glasses became a symbol of India’s confidence in the matter of Pakistan. At first glance this may seem ridiculous, but the reality is that now the only thing worth considering in Indian foreign policy regarding Pakistan is the body language of diplomats and their style.

Importance of SCO: By sending Jaishankar to Islamabad for the summit, India indicated that it wants to maintain its association with the SCO. Last year, when Bilawat Bhutto Zardari came to Goa to attend the SCO meeting, he/she was the first Pakistani foreign minister to visit India since 2011. Similarly, this time Jaishankar became the first Indian Foreign Minister to visit Pakistan in a period of almost a decade. But both these visits remained inconclusive in terms of bilateral relations.

Focus on security challenges: Established in 2001, the organization, with membership from countries such as Russia, China, India, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Iran, is a Eurasian grouping that began as a platform to address regional security challenges such as extremism and terrorism. Was. Goals such as facilitating trade and investment and strengthening economic ties were later included within its scope.

Differences on Afghanistan: The changing geopolitical interests of member states have affected the SCO’s ability to deal with state-sponsored terrorism. India continues to emphasize the need for increased cooperation against terrorism and also expresses concern over the growing state-sponsored terrorism, especially in Pakistan, but it has not achieved much success. Not only this, the kind of differences that have emerged in this group on the question of a peaceful, prosperous and stable Afghanistan also underline the challenges coming in its path. These show that member states often prioritize their own narrow interests over a collective approach to peace in the region.

Peace and stability necessary: During the meeting in Islamabad, Jaishankar reminded SCO of its core objectives and stressed the need to stick to basics. he/she said- It is not necessary to mention separately that development and economic growth require peace and stability. And as the Charter also makes clear, this means taking a firm and unwavering approach in combating the ‘three evils’. Jaishankar clarified on the occasion that ‘if cross-border activities are related to terrorism, extremism and separatism, then trade, business and people-to-people exchanges cannot be promoted parallelly.’

One-sided agenda is harmful: If Pakistan was the clear target, China was also not spared. he/she said that ‘cooperation cannot be increased on the basis of one-sided agenda. It is essential that it be based on the principle of mutual respect and equality of sovereign nations, acknowledge territorial integrity and sovereignty, and proceed through genuine partnership. SCO cannot move forward if we choose global trends related to trade and transit as per our own. In line with its declared policy, India refused to support China’s ‘One Belt One Road’ initiative. On this issue, he/she was seen standing apart in SCO, because other members supported this contact initiative of China.

Connectivity of Eurasia: Despite challenges from Pakistan and China, Central Asia remains a priority for India. Jaishankar’s visit to Islamabad was proof of this. Since becoming a full member in 2017, India has prioritized counter-terrorism and has been advocating for greater cooperation among member states. India also emphasizes connectivity and socio-economic development in Eurasia. Initiatives such as the International North-South Transport Corridor and the Chabahar Port Project demonstrate India’s commitment to enhancing trade and connectivity in the region.

A round of uninterrupted conversation passed: There is no possibility of any change in relations with Pakistan soon. Just a few months ago, Jaishankar had announced that the ‘era of uninterrupted dialogue’ with Pakistan was over. By visiting Islamabad, Jaishankar has given a message to the SCO members that New Delhi is serious about this forum. Pakistan was just an instrument.

(The author is a professor at King’s College, England)