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Voting was held on 199 seats out of total 200 assembly constituencies of Rajasthan. Of these, 46 are marginal, where pro-incumbency and anti-incumbency factors give rise to two possibilities. If we look at scene one, if all the marginal seats become anti-incumbency, then Congress is likely to get 55 to 65 seats. Whereas BJP can win 130 to 140 seats. BSP will win 0 to 2 seats, while others are likely to win 0 to 4 seats.
Rajasthan Chunav 2023 Exit Polls Live: How accurate are the exit polls in Rajasthan, whose government will be formed before the results, BJP or Congress!
In scenario two, if all marginal seats go in favor of the ruling party, Congress is likely to win 91 to 101 seats, BJP 88 to 98 seats, BSP 0 to 2 seats and others 0 to 10 seats. Have an estimate. According to the exit poll, out of 46 marginal seats with equal vote share, Congress is likely to get 21, BJP 11 and others 14.
The exit poll conducted by ABP News-CVoter shows that BJP is making a comeback in Rajasthan. She lost this state in the 2018 elections. According to the exit poll conducted with a sample size of 34,690, Congress is expected to get 41.1 percent votes, which was 39.3 percent in 2018. However, BJP’s vote share is expected to increase further to 44.7 percent. In 2018 it had reached 38.8 percent.
Suspense in MP, Rajasthan is also not clear, Congress in Chhattisgarh-Telangana… Understand the complete scene of exit poll.
This difference in vote share seems to be enough to push the BJP towards the majority mark of 101 in the 199-member state assembly. According to exit polls, BJP is expected to get 94 to 104 seats, while Congress is expected to get 71 to 91 seats. Even in the best-case scenario for the Congress, exit polls show the party nowhere close to a majority. But the best situation for BJP is that the party gets a comfortable majority. In this round of elections, the vote share of others will come down to 11.7 percent, whereas in 2018 it was 17.9 percent.
A deeper analysis of exit poll data shows that there are around 50 seats where others, including rebels from both the BJP and the Congress, can spoil the game. According to exit poll data, if all the marginal seats go anti-incumbency, then BJP is expected to get 130 to 140 seats out of 200. If all the marginal seats go in favor of the incumbents, Congress is projected to win 91 to 101 seats.
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