Tuesday, February 27th, 2024

ABP C Voter Survey: 46 marginal seats in Rajasthan can decide the fate of Congress, know what equations are being created.


New Delhi : After the completion of assembly elections in 5 states including Rajasthan, now everyone is waiting for the results. Counting of votes will take place on December 3, which will make the picture clear as to who is forming the government. After the completion of elections in five states, exit polls came out on Thursday. In this, the claims regarding Rajasthan in different exit polls are completely different. Some are saying that BJP is ahead while some are talking about the atmosphere in favor of the ruling Congress. Among these, the exit poll of ABP-CVoter is presenting a different equation. According to this, 46 marginal seats in Rajasthan could be the key to the fate of the ruling Congress.

Whose government in Rajasthan?

Voting was held on 199 seats out of total 200 assembly constituencies of Rajasthan. Of these, 46 are marginal, where pro-incumbency and anti-incumbency factors give rise to two possibilities. If we look at scene one, if all the marginal seats become anti-incumbency, then Congress is likely to get 55 to 65 seats. Whereas BJP can win 130 to 140 seats. BSP will win 0 to 2 seats, while others are likely to win 0 to 4 seats.

Rajasthan Chunav 2023 Exit Polls Live: How accurate are the exit polls in Rajasthan, whose government will be formed before the results, BJP or Congress!

Keep an eye on 46 marginal seats

In scenario two, if all marginal seats go in favor of the ruling party, Congress is likely to win 91 to 101 seats, BJP 88 to 98 seats, BSP 0 to 2 seats and others 0 to 10 seats. Have an estimate. According to the exit poll, out of 46 marginal seats with equal vote share, Congress is likely to get 21, BJP 11 and others 14.

BJP’s return in ABP CVoter’s exit poll

The exit poll conducted by ABP News-CVoter shows that BJP is making a comeback in Rajasthan. She lost this state in the 2018 elections. According to the exit poll conducted with a sample size of 34,690, Congress is expected to get 41.1 percent votes, which was 39.3 percent in 2018. However, BJP’s vote share is expected to increase further to 44.7 percent. In 2018 it had reached 38.8 percent.

Suspense in MP, Rajasthan is also not clear, Congress in Chhattisgarh-Telangana… Understand the complete scene of exit poll.

Know the vote share of BJP-Congress

This difference in vote share seems to be enough to push the BJP towards the majority mark of 101 in the 199-member state assembly. According to exit polls, BJP is expected to get 94 to 104 seats, while Congress is expected to get 71 to 91 seats. Even in the best-case scenario for the Congress, exit polls show the party nowhere close to a majority. But the best situation for BJP is that the party gets a comfortable majority. In this round of elections, the vote share of others will come down to 11.7 percent, whereas in 2018 it was 17.9 percent.

Know who gets how many seats in ABP survey

A deeper analysis of exit poll data shows that there are around 50 seats where others, including rebels from both the BJP and the Congress, can spoil the game. According to exit poll data, if all the marginal seats go anti-incumbency, then BJP is expected to get 130 to 140 seats out of 200. If all the marginal seats go in favor of the incumbents, Congress is projected to win 91 to 101 seats.

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