In the last elections of Maharashtra-Jharkhand, did the exit polls pass or fail? See 2019 estimates and actual results

New Delhi: Voting has ended in the assembly elections of Maharashtra and Jharkhand. Now the results are awaited on 23rd November. Earlier, after voting ended in both the states at 6 pm on Wednesday, exit poll results came. But this time the enthusiasm regarding exit polls was not at the same level as it used to be earlier. After the failure of exit polls first in the Lok Sabha elections and then in the Haryana Assembly elections, the circle of doubt on its credibility has become stronger. But if we are limited to Maharashtra and Jharkhand, then how right or wrong were the exit polls regarding these two states in the last elections?

Maharashtra-Jharkhand elections were held in 2019

The last assembly elections were held in both the states in 2019. Then the average of seven exit polls in Maharashtra had given 207 seats to the BJP-led NDA. But when the Election Commission declared the results, NDA was reduced to 161 seats. That is, in the exit polls NDA was given 46 more seats. Then there was Shiv Sena with BJP in NDA which was not divided.

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Then Shiv Sena Chief Uddhav Thackeray broke ties with BJP for the post of Chief Minister and joined the Congress-NCP alliance. But it was unable to form the government after the alliance could not agree on power-sharing. Shiv Sena then joined hands with Congress and NCP, whose total strength was 98, and formed the Maha Vikas Aghadi government. On the other hand, the exit polls had given the Congress-NCP alliance 16 seats, reducing the Congress-NCP alliance to 65 seats. But when the actual results came, the Congress-NCP alliance got 33 more seats.

In the 2019 Maharashtra elections, the News18-IPSOS poll had given a different prediction. It had predicted 243 seats for the NDA and just 41 seats for the Congress-NCP alliance. But the closest to the exact result was India Today-Axis My India, which had estimated a minimum of 166 seats for BJP-Shiv Sena while a maximum of 90 seats for Congress-NCP.

What was the condition of exit polls in the last elections of Jharkhand?

Last time the pollsters had performed well in the projections presented for Jharkhand. The average of three exit polls had predicted the JMM-Congress-RJD alliance to win 41 of the total 81 seats in the state. At the same time, 29 seats were given to BJP which had contested the elections alone. Then All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU), which broke away from NDA and showed its strength in the election field, was given four seats and the then Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (JVM) led by Babulal Marandi was given three seats.

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AJSU returned to NDA this time while JVM merged with BJP in 2020. The remaining four seats were predicted to go to independents and other parties. The JMM-led alliance managed to perform slightly better than the exit polls, winning 47 seats, while the BJP won 25, AJSU two and JVM three. Without the alliance with AJSU and JVM, BJP fell far short of the majority and was ousted from power by the Hemant Soren-led alliance.

This one exit poll gave the closest results

In Jharkhand too, India Today-Axis My India’s poll turned out to be the most accurate. It had given at least 22 seats to BJP which in actual results had won 25 seats. Similarly, it had given maximum 50 seats to JMM’s alliance and actually got 47 seats. Times Now poll had predicted JMM alliance to get 44 seats. Babulal Marandi’s JVM was given three seats in all three exit polls and the same happened in the actual results. However, all exit polls had slightly underestimated AJSU.