Opinion: Donald Trump surprised everyone with the selection of ministers, will these new players make or spoil India’s work?

Author: Amit Gupta
Donald Trump has surprised everyone in Washington by choosing strange names for national security posts in his/her new cabinet. In particular, Washington experts are raising questions on the decision to appoint Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence and Pete Hegseth as Defense Minister. he/she says that both these candidates lack experience and are not suitable for the posts. Trump has chosen Marco Rubio for the future Secretary of State, who is a leader who understands the Washington setup. But Rubio’s experience in foreign policy is limited to a tough stance against Cuba. The name of Elon Musk is also added to all this, who is Trump’s unofficial but influential messenger. By meeting Iran’s representative at the United Nations, Musk has shown that he/she will play a role in both domestic and foreign policy. However, Tehran has denied this. Actually, Trump wants people who think out of the box. They can help shape his/her agenda on issues such as resolving conflicts in Ukraine and pressuring China to change its trade policies and refrain from aggression in Taiwan or the East and South China Seas. This will require deals that cannot come out of the country’s national security establishment, which is too conservative, inert and devoid of imagination.

Mainstream media say that it will be difficult to confirm these names. But this ignores the situation in Trump’s favor. In 2016, the Republican Party was not indebted to Trump, but this time it has won only because of him/her. This has made it difficult for them to reject Trump’s choice. Moreover, Republicans have won the presidency, Senate and Congress with the claim that they will bring about change in the government and reverse the risky foreign policy of the Biden administration. The Biden administration supported the Ukraine war and supported Israel in Gaza.

Gabbard and Hegseth are the kind of unique people the new president needs to turn this foreign policy around and move toward the Trump administration’s aspirations. Those who have met Gabbard all praise her intelligence and understanding of international affairs. They are supposed to prevent actions by the intelligence community that go against Trump’s view of America’s role in world affairs. Reducing the bloated and highly compensated intelligence bureaucracy will also be part of the agenda.

Rubio will manage the State Department, but it remains to be seen whether he/she can play a major role in the Trump administration. Previous presidents have bypassed their secretaries of state, relying instead on the national security adviser and the secretary of defense. As far as Hegseth is concerned, he/she is being accused of lacking the experience to handle the biggest government department. his/her critics forget that Donald Rumsfeld, who was perfectly qualified to reform the Defense Department, failed miserably, so new blood with new ideas is welcome. Given the US defense budget, which now stands at $850 billion, it is necessary to make both reforms and cuts, and Hegseth has promised to do so.

Using Musk as the envoy is an imaginative move because he/she is respected globally as an innovator and entrepreneur and hence, he/she has access to international capitals and leadership in a way that a typical diplomat does not. his/her unofficial status gives him/her the freedom to take radical steps to advance American foreign policy. In this, Trump’s personality and willingness to make compromises with global leaders, even with people like Kim Jong-un and the Iranian leadership, will help him/her. If only Nixon could go to China, only Trump can go to Tehran or Pyongyang.

So how do these elections affect India? Gabbard is known to be pro-India and the next National Security Advisor (NSA) Mike Waltz has led the India Caucus in Congress. But even though this may generate goodwill, it will not impact policies. The policy related to India will be decided by how New Delhi fits into Trump’s vision for a changed world order. They want to resolve the situation in West Asia, reduce tensions with Russia and focus on China. India is already ready to change China’s behavior in the Indo-Pacific region. But the main issue for Trump may be what role India plays on tariff and trade issues.

If India were to become a partner, it would be expected to quickly purchase American military equipment and civilian technologies. Signing an agreement to manufacture Tesla in India would be one such positive step. New Delhi will have to move away from its diplomatic style of long talks and make quick agreements so that it can show its seriousness. Continuing to procrastinate until an agreement is reached will strengthen the perception that India talks big but does nothing. Trump and his/her cabinet are looking for new solutions in world affairs. Can India abandon its traditional negotiating style and work with their plans to its advantage?

The author is Senior Advisor to the Forum of Federations, Ontario and is an expert on US defense and foreign policy issues.