Opinion: Russia was rescued, now it’s my turn… Seeing which strength of India, did China agree to the agreement on LAC?

Although China was defeated in Doklam also, yet it was determined to join hands with India in East Ladakh. The result was the same again. Today China is ready to step back and go back to where it was before the encroachment attempts in 2020. But the question is, what did the regime of Chinese President Xi Jinping see in the government of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi that it considered China-India friendship better, even if temporarily? China affairs expert and writer Shaibal Dasgupta has explained this in detail in an article written for our associate newspaper The Economic Times. Below is an edited excerpt of his/her article… After the India-China talks on Monday, an important question is arising – what is the thing that will persuade Xi Jinping to start the process of resolving the border dispute in Eastern Ladakh in 2020? Inspired? The simple answer is that China has many expectations from India which it wants to fulfill.

The meeting of Narendra Modi-Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Kazan on Wednesday proved to be extremely useful in understanding each other’s hidden fears and ambitions. As soon as the meeting started, Modi came straight to the point, ‘We are holding a formal meeting after five years. We believe that India-China relations are very important not only for our people but also for global peace, stability and progress.

After the meeting, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri said that both the leaders supported the border patrol agreement signed on Monday. The statement is significant because implementing the agreement would require strict orders from Xi to the PLA’s Western Theater Command which deals with the Indian border.

The PLA has already created some infrastructure near the Ladakh border. Military stations have also been built here, including 11 disputed patrol stations. It is generally difficult to persuade the military command to withdraw troops from a specific border location. New Delhi hopes Xi will speed up the process of withdrawing forces from the disputed areas.

‘A lot of decisions in China are made at the level of military commanders, not just diplomats,’ former diplomat P Stobdan told me. he/she said, ‘The army has its own perspective of looking at the situation. I don’t think the PLA can be trusted to give up its aggressive stance on the Indian border.

What Xi expects from India is clear from the statements of Chinese experts. Some have said that India should focus on increasing trade and business relations with China as it no longer has the ‘excuse of China threat’.

It must be understood that India took the initiative for the peace process when an inter-ministerial group approved investment proposals from Chinese companies based in China, Hong Kong and other areas. This was the first major relaxation in government restrictions imposed on Chinese investments after the Galwan offensive by PLA troops in 2020.

The border patrolling arrangement on Monday created a lot of excitement in India. The border dispute is seen as the biggest hurdle in Indian aspirations of becoming the third largest country in terms of GDP. On the other hand, Chinese officials and media refrained from showing enthusiasm about the agreement.

A day after the agreement, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said, “In recent days, China and India have reached a solution on issues related to the border area after close contact through diplomatic and military means.” China appreciates the progress made and will continue to work with India for the proper implementation of these proposals. he/she did not give any details about the agreement, while also leaving out issues like withdrawal of troops and going back to the situation before the 2020 Galwan attacks.

One way to find out what the Chinese government thinks on any issue is to listen to what it is telling its domestic audiences, and what it is hiding from them. It remains to be seen what the Xi government will tell the Chinese in the coming days about the Xi-Modi meeting in Kazan.

To be sure, Xi’s prestige has taken a hit since the pandemic as the Chinese economy is still in crisis and its citizens bear the brunt of rising unemployment and a major housing crisis. At such a time, the need for Chinese citizens to accept the diplomatic successes of their government cannot be overemphasized. In this respect, Xi’s position is not good.

The bigger question is whether Xi needs Modi’s support to initiate measures to weaken the impact of US-led economic sanctions on China. Washington has imposed sweeping sanctions on Chinese companies that have made it difficult for Xi to implement any program of significant new technologies from around the world.

Modi made it clear in his/her BRICS speech that he/she is in favor of an alternative payment system covering the countries of the group. This must have been very pleasing to Xi’s ears. China and Russia want a drastic reduction in global dependence on the dollar.

For its part, the US is trying its best to pretend that it is not concerned about the churning of anti-American measures in BRICS. White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said, ‘We do not see BRICS emerging as any kind of geopolitical rival. We don’t look at it this way for America or anyone else.

The biggest challenge before India is how to maintain its strategic autonomy while playing an important role in the BRICS club without challenging American interests. In that context, all BRICS members including China, Russia and India are closely watching the ongoing presidential elections in the US.

Beijing is particularly concerned about the possible return of Donald Trump to the Oval Office. Trump has vowed to double tariffs and other restrictive measures against Chinese companies. This is why China needs the support of India and other countries to counter America’s attack.

In the Ukraine war, India has shown its strength by purchasing oil from Russia, defying the aspirations of the entire West including America. This is the reason why China has confidence in India. he/she feels that if the relations improve, then just as India saved Russia from the crisis in the war, it can definitely support it. Washington was not happy with New Delhi’s decision to buy oil from Russia, but Beijing was smiling. he/she sees the solution to his/her crisis in India’s strength.