maharashtra elections ajit pawar mahayuti and uddhav thackrey not fit in mahavikas aghadi detailed analysis

Author: Gangadhar Dhoble
There is not much time left for the Maharashtra Assembly elections and its chessboard has long been laid. An unprecedented riot of allegations and counter-allegations, claims and counter-claims, challenge and counter-challenge, check-mate has been going on for a long time. The conflict is not only between the two alliances, but also among their constituent parties. There is mutual tension regarding seat distribution.

helplessness
There are two alliances in the state. One is called Mahayuti, which is led by BJP. Chief Minister Shinde’s Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP are its constituents. The second alliance is Mahavikas Aghadi, whose leadership is in the hands of Congress. Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena and Sharad Pawar’s NCP are its constituent parties. BJP and Shinde are upset with Ajit’s group because it could win only one seat in the Lok Sabha elections. his/her votes were also not transferred to BJP or Shinde Sena.

BJP voters angry
There is also an argument that if Ajit Dada fights independently, Mahavikas Aghadi will suffer loss due to division of votes of Marathas, Dalits and backward classes. Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis has admitted that BJP voters are angry over the alliance with Ajit Dada, but it should be accepted that in politics many compromises have to be made under compulsion.

trying to balance
Similar arguments are being given regarding Uddhav Thackeray in Mahavikas Aghadi also. Uddhav Sena’s votes are not getting to Congress or Sharad Pawar’s NCP. If Uddhav also fights independently, he/she can reduce the votes of Shinde Sena. But, with elections round the corner, the talk of removing Uddhav seems to be over now. The leadership of BJP or Congress no longer appears to be in favor of taking the risk of any change. One thought is that Ajit or Uddhav’s continuation in their respective alliances is necessary for political balance.

apportionment formula
There are a total of 288 assembly seats in Maharashtra. The magic figure of majority is 145. Achieving this number for any one party seems difficult in today’s times. Talks are going on on seat sharing between both the alliances. The formula for distribution seems certain that the seats currently held by the party will remain with the same party. There are about 200 such seats.

where is the problem
The remaining seats are held by other small parties or independents. The problem lies with them. Also, there is some overlapping going on. Overlapping means that the seat which is held by one constituent party of the alliance is also being claimed by the other party.

consent in one place
There are reports of a temporary agreement on seat sharing in the Mahayuti. According to this, BJP may get 155-160 seats, Shinde Sena may get 80 to 85 seats and Ajit Dada may get 50 to 55 seats. No numbers have been revealed yet regarding seat distribution in Mahavikas Aghadi.

Mumbai zone
The color of elections seems to be changing every moment in different areas of the state. There are 36 assembly seats in Mumbai region. The 2019 assembly elections were jointly contested by BJP and a unified Shiv Sena. In the recently held Lok Sabha elections, the Thackeray faction maintained its dominance in this region and won 3 out of 6 seats. Shinde Sena got one seat. BJP and Congress captured one seat each. There are preliminary estimates that Thackeray’s Shiv Sena will dominate the assembly elections also.

Konkan region
Thane, Palghar, Raigarh, Ratnagiri and Sindhudurg districts come in this zone. In the last assembly elections, BJP had got 11 seats, Shiv Sena 15 and NCP 8 seats. Similarly, out of 62 assembly seats in Vidarbha region, last time BJP-Shiv Sena had got maximum 33 seats. NCP and Congress had won 21 seats. However, in the Lok Sabha elections, Aghadi got 7 seats and Mahayuti got only 3 seats. Then Aghadi was ahead in about 35 assembly constituencies and Mahayuti got the lead in 22.

Marathwada region
There are 46 assembly seats in this region. In the last elections, BJP had won 16 and Shiv Sena had won 11. After the split between Shiv Sena and NCP, Mahayuti has 39 out of 46 MLAs. BJP was wiped out in Marathwada in the Lok Sabha elections.

Shock from Maratha movement
The Maratha reservation movement has shocked him/her. Even in North Maharashtra, BJP has been hit by the Maratha reservation movement. In the last assembly elections, BJP had won 13 out of 35 seats in North Maharashtra. Shiv Sena won 6, NCP 7 and Congress 5. But, BJP got only one seat out of 8 in the Lok Sabha. The Thackeray faction won the maximum of three seats.

the future will be decided
Western Maharashtra has been the bastion of cooperative sugar mills, Sharad Pawar and the Marathas. There are 70 assembly seats in this area. Sharad Pawar had performed well here in the Lok Sabha elections and it is believed that that trend may continue in the Assembly. Overall, this election is going to be interesting. This will also decide once and for all where Shinde, Thackeray or Ajit Pawar will be. This election is also a challenge for Devendra Fadnavis. Whether he/she will stay in the state or go to the Center can also be decided by the election results.