If Trump becomes the President of America, then… know the 5 things that India will have to do

New Delhi : The eyes of the world are fixed on the US presidential election. During the election campaign, Republican candidates Donald Trump and
Democrat candidate Joe Biden is busy trying to gain an edge over each other. The eyes of small and big countries of the world including America are more on the speeches of Donald Trump. Currently, in media reports, Trump seems to be dominating his/her rival Joe Biden. In such a situation, if President Trump returns to power, then it should not be surprising if the current diplomatic equations with America change for many countries. In such a situation, the question is what will India need to do if Trump becomes President again. The way Trump is giving speeches in America, one thing is certain that Donald Trump’s possible second term as President will run on the basis of ‘common sense’. This is the same common sense whose idea was the main topic of the recently concluded Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. It is believed that under Trump’s leadership, the Republican Party will take a big step towards ending the traditional American consensus on many issues. This includes free trade, alliances, open borders. The rest of the world including India will have to change their perceptions about America.

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What will Trump’s plan be?

The Indian Express reports that five potential changes should make the Indian foreign policy elite rethink their own ‘common sense’ about the US. The report says that the Trade and Economic Globalisation Republican Conference has endorsed Trump’s anti-globalisation stance without hesitation. The Republican Party wants to stop outsourcing production to the rest of the world (at the expense of people working at home). It wants to make America a manufacturing superpower again. The main tool for this is Trump’s announced plan to increase tariffs on imports (10% for all imports and 60% for imports from China). In an interview to Bloomberg, Trump emphasized his/her long-standing desire to devalue the dollar to make imports more expensive and boost US exports.

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1. Trade policy will have to be considered

The report said that the world has long taken it for granted that the US is a bottomless source for world exports. This belief cannot be sustained in a second term of Trump. Complaining about US protectionism or talking about WTO rules will not resonate much with Washington. Talking about the WTO, as our trade bureaucrats do, will be like chanting mantras to stop a powerful cyclone. Trade issues, which were a major irritant in India’s engagement with Trump in the first term, will now become a serious challenge. To address this, India will have to rethink its trade strategies.

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2. Better position in terms of security and alliance

According to the report, in terms of security and alliance security, India may be in a better position than America’s allies in Europe and Asia, who fear being abandoned by the US. Republicans do not want to isolate America from the world. They want more reciprocity. At first glance, as a non-ally, India is not part of that argument; but military partnership with the US is very important to India’s defense calculus today. This is because China has always been aggressive on its borders. Although the India-US synergy is real, Delhi is still hesitant to convert it into a concrete military arrangement.

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The idea that Delhi can play all sides without committing to any may be hard to pursue under Trump, who plans to shake up America’s great power relations. There is a good fit between the US search for willing and capable partners and India’s desire to build its comprehensive national power and play a bigger role in reshaping Asian security. India has been slow to articulate a plan for greater burden sharing with the US over the past decade or so. This must now be an urgent priority for New Delhi.

3. Preparation for work on immigration

Illegal immigration is a major issue in the US. Immigration and open borders Indian elites have been a major beneficiary of America’s open border policies since the 1960s. India should be able to work with the Trump administration to facilitate legal immigration, which is vital for US trade, while curbing illegal immigration.

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4. Important partnership in the energy sector

Republicans are determined to dismantle the Biden administration’s sweeping “green transition” agenda. Trump is promising to make the US an “energy superpower” through industrial policy. he/she plans to support a rapid expansion of hydrocarbon drilling. India worked with major US oil companies during Trump’s tenure. It would be wise for Delhi to re-engage with them. Trump’s US could become a more important energy partner for India.

5. Interaction with domestic political fields

Amid the broader political realignment being pursued by Trump, India should increase its dialogue with different domestic political constituencies in the US. Trump’s arguments for placing the interests of the working class above the interests of capital, securing labour against mass immigration, reducing global commitments and avoiding wars abroad bridge the gap between Republicans and Democrats and have diverse sources of political support.