Modi Government Third Term: Why are there chances of mid-term elections in Modi 3.0?

How do you see the election campaign of Modi and BJP in 7 phases?

At the beginning of the election, BJP made big promises like ‘Modi ki Guarantee’ and ‘Modi Phir Aayenge’. The party insisted that PM Modi will come back to power and will continue to serve you. But, in the second and third phase of the election, the opposition changed its strategy. They stopped attacking Modi and started talking about the problems of the economy. Perhaps BJP felt that it would be difficult to counter this, so they tried to take the whole atmosphere to the issues of cultural identity. In this way, the campaign became negative and Hindutva-centric.

Did BJP believe that the Hindutva issue would work again?

Yes, but I have heard the problem in politics is that people know what you stand for. The BJP’s Hindu identity is now well established and they did not need to emphasize it any more. In a pre-poll survey, we had asked what was the best work of the Modi government, and the answer came without any pressure: Ram Mandir. This means that people clearly knew that this government has done something for Hindus. Now people wanted something more and this was what I have called ‘Hindutva fatigue’. People did not reject Hindutva, but they said we already know what you are, now tell us what you are going to do next. This is where the BJP failed, they felt they needed to push the Hindutva issue more.

Is it difficult or impossible to understand Indian voters?

Exit polls and the parties themselves often make wrong predictions. It is very difficult to know what the voter wants because he/she keeps many things in his/her mind and does not say them openly. This is why the work of ground workers becomes very important for political parties. A leader alone cannot understand what people want or what they will respond positively to. It is these ground workers who convey the opinion of the public from the bottom to the leaders. Only then the leader is able to understand the sentiments of the public and take advantage of them. It is difficult to tell what the voter is thinking or what he/she wants. We often think about big issues like caste, religion, economic condition, but along with all these, the voter also thinks about his/her daily life. he/she also keeps in mind the promises of the parties, the possibilities after winning and his/her dreams. We are not able to know exactly how much impact all these things have.

Does the election result mean that BJP’s feedback was not correct?

The first reason could be that the party has started trusting only the top leaders, ignoring the grassroots workers and leaders. The second could be that the party already knew what the public wanted, so even if they were getting some information from the ground, they were not taking it seriously. The third reason could be that when a leader keeps winning continuously, he/she starts feeling that he/she understands the public well. But suddenly the distance between the public and the leader increases. Perhaps the party had become so excited about its ideas that it did not strengthen the way to continuously take opinions from the grassroots workers.

Impact of allies like Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu on BJP?

Modi has no experience of negotiating with competitors within or outside the party. he/she firmly believes that he/she knows what is best and is always ready to get his/her way, whether he/she was the chief minister of Gujarat or the prime minister in Delhi for the last 10 years. Now, a leader who has never been used to compromise will be forced to compromise and it will be a test of how much Modi is able to adapt. This challenging journey will be interesting for the BJP. BJP rule has shown three main pillars. The first is Hindutva, which both alliance partners will not be comfortable with. They are not anti-Hindu, but there is a difference between being Hindu and being pro-Hindutva. These allies will likely try to slow down this agenda. The second point of the BJP is to give a free hand to major economic players. The BJP believes that wealth creation is the primary objective of a good government because it has a trickle-down effect. Naidu, when he/she first became chief minister, supported this view. he/she is likely to agree with the BJP on this matter even today. he/she could support the BJP on economic matters and balance any opposition from Nitish Kumar, who has a more mixed stance on these issues.

What about issues like ‘One Nation, One Election’, which are pending?

Naidu’s stance while discussing ‘one nation, one election’ is uncertain as his/her state already follows a unified election schedule. There could be a direct clash between Naidu and Nitish Kumar on the issue of delimitation. Their different regional interests mean they would prefer different approaches. Regarding caste census, Naidu may not openly oppose it, but he/she may feel quite uncomfortable. This is not usually the kind of politics he/she has practised. In other words, the BJP seems to be returning to the Vajpayee era, where despite being in power, they cannot openly push their ideological agenda.

Can Modi play a role like Vajpayee?

No, that is why I say this is going to be a fascinating era. Not because there is a coalition, we have seen coalition governments before. But if you look at the coalitions we have seen, you will find that they were led by experienced politicians skilled in compromise and negotiation. Now 10 years later there is a coalition government whose leaders are not accustomed to this kind of leadership. Both by temperament and thinking they are opposed to the idea of ​​compromise and give and take.

How will BJP deal with this phase?

The only way out for the BJP is to add more partners to the NDA, either by breaking other parties or bringing more parties into the NDA. Then they can balance these parties like the TDP and the JD(U) on various issues. This balancing can be done not by Modi but by others in the party. The other possible way out for the BJP is to break these two parties. However, Nitish Kumar’s party is very weak internally and it can be very easy to break it. Modi will probably be ready for a short period when there is a minority government and then say, ‘Okay, I am doing this, you do whatever you want, if needed I will go to the people again.’ I also do not rule out the possibility that after two years Modi again goes to the voters and says ‘Look at my first 10 years where I could do so many things and now there are these chains. I don’t want these chains, give us a demand.’