BJP breathed new life into the economy, yet it still weakened, what is the reason?

New Delhi: The BJP’s vote share has fallen since last time. The BJP’s national vote share fell marginally from 37.3% in 2019 to 36.6% in 2024, but its number of seats fell by 63 from 303 to 240. That’s less than half. In contrast, the Congress increased its vote share slightly from 19.5% last time to 21.2%, but that was enough to nearly double its number of seats from 52 to 99. How can such a small change in vote share make such a big difference in the number of seats? That’s because the national vote share is an aggregate of states. A party can gain vote share in a state where its base is so small that it can’t win seats even if the votes are added, while losing the same number of votes in a highly competitive state could cost it several seats.

The number of seats did not increase

The same has happened with the BJP this time. For example, in Tamil Nadu, its vote share increased from 3.6% in 2019 to 11.2% this time, but this did not lead to any increase in its number of seats. Similarly, in Punjab, it increased from 9.6% to 18.6%, but in the absence of an alliance, this was not enough to win any seats, so it lost two seats.

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Damage happened in Bihar

On the other hand, a drop of almost three percentage points from 23.6% to 20.5% in Bihar has cost it five seats. While a drop of just 1.6 percentage points in West Bengal has cost it six seats. However, the most dramatic example was seen in Maharashtra, where the BJP’s share fell from 27.6% to 26.2%, but this has led to it getting less than half the seats compared to last time.

Congress seats increased

Talking about the Congress, in Maharashtra, its vote share increased by less than one percentage point, from 16.3% to 17.1%. This increased its number of seats from one to 13. In Rajasthan, it increased its vote share from 34.2% to 37.9%. In UP, its vote share increased from 6.3% to 9.5%, increasing its number of seats from one to six.

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SP’s vote share increased

The third largest party, SP, secured its highest ever tally of 37 in the Lok Sabha, increasing its vote share from 18% to 33.5%. With Congress’ 9.5%, India Bloc’s vote share in the state was 43%, leading to a neck-and-neck contest with the NDA. Last time, the SP-BSP alliance’s 37.3% was a far cry from the NDA’s 50%-plus vote share. It is this dramatic narrowing of the gap, which very few had expected in the absence of BSP from the opposition alliance, that was the game changer in UP.